kriging approach to the analysis of climate model experiments

A climate model is a computer implementation of a mathematical model for the physical, chemical and biological processes underlying the climate. An immediate use of a climate model is in performing climate model experiments, where uncertain input quantities, such as greenhouse gas and aerosol concen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of agricultural, biological, and environmental statistics biological, and environmental statistics, 2009-03, Vol.14 (1), p.99-114
Main Author: Drignei, Dorin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions
Biological and medical sciences
Biometrics, statistics, experimental designs, modeling, agricultural computer applications
Biostatistics
Climate models
Climatology
Covariance
Covariance matrices
Datasets
equations
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Generalities. Biometrics, experimentation. Remote sensing
Health Sciences
Kriging
Mathematics and Statistics
Medicine
Modeling
Monitoring/Environmental Analysis
Regression analysis
Statistical models
Statistics
Statistics for Life Sciences
Surface temperature
temperature
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Summary:A climate model is a computer implementation of a mathematical model for the physical, chemical and biological processes underlying the climate. An immediate use of a climate model is in performing climate model experiments, where uncertain input quantities, such as greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, are systematically varied to gain insight into their effects on the climate system. Climate models are computationally intensive, allowing only small experiments. We present a multidimensional kriging method to predict climate model variables at new inputs, based on the experimental data available. The method is particularly suitable for situations in which the climate model data sets share a common pattern across the input space, such as surface temperatures that are lower at the Poles, higher at the Equator, and increasing over time. The results demonstrate the potential of our kriging method as an exploratory tool in climate science.
ISSN:1085-7117
1537-2693
DOI:10.1198/jabes.2009.0006