The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany

We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American economic review 2023-05, Vol.113 (5), p.1208-1254
Main Authors: Schmieder, Johannes F., von Wachter, Till, Heining, Jörg
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclicality are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. These losses increase with duration of nonemployment. Changes in characteristics of displaced workers or displacing firms, and other post-job loss career outcomes explain little of the cyclicality. (JEL E24, E32, J31, J63, J64, J65)
ISSN:0002-8282
DOI:10.1257/aer.20200252