An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease

We describe the structure and use of epidemiology models of disease transmission, with an emphasis on the susceptible/infected/recovered (SIR) model. We discuss high-profile forecasts of cases and deaths that have been based on these models, what went wrong with the early forecasts, and how they hav...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of economic perspectives 2020-11, Vol.34 (4), p.79-104
Main Authors: Avery, Christopher, Bossert, William, Clark, Adam, Ellison, Glenn, Ellison, Sara Fisher
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economics and Epidemiology
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We describe the structure and use of epidemiology models of disease transmission, with an emphasis on the susceptible/infected/recovered (SIR) model. We discuss high-profile forecasts of cases and deaths that have been based on these models, what went wrong with the early forecasts, and how they have adapted to the current COVID pandemic. We also offer three distinct areas where economists would be well positioned to contribute to or inform this epidemiology literature: modeling heterogeneity of susceptible populations in various dimensions, accommodating endogeneity of the parameters governing disease spread, and helping to understand the importance of political economy issues in disease suppression.
ISSN:0895-3309
1944-7965
DOI:10.1257/jep.34.4.79