Russian aggression against Ukraine and the changes in European Union countries’ macroeconomic situation: Do energy intensity and energy dependence matter?

The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying the k-means clustering, there are disti...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economics and business review 2023-12, Vol.9 (4), p.74-95
Main Authors: Wielechowski, Michał, Czech, Katarzyna
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alternative energy sources
Business Economy / Management
clustering
COVID-19
E01
E24
E31
E43
Economy
energy dependence
energy intensity
Energy prices
Energy resources
European Union member states
Fossil fuels
H62
Inflation
Interest rates
International trade
macroeconomic indicators
Macroeconomics
Natural gas
Q43
Russian aggression against Ukraine
Securities markets
Stock exchanges
Supplies
Sustainable development
Trade restrictions
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Summary:The study aims to assess whether there are significant differences among EU member states regarding the Russo-Ukrainian-conflict-driven changes in macroeconomic indicators and whether these differences are linked to the country’s energy vulnerability. Applying the k-means clustering, there are distinguished three country groups similar with regard to regarding their energy intensity, energy dependence (including Russian gas dependence) and household budgets' exposure to energy prices. Based on Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon pairwise comparison tests, the study reveals statistically significant differences among the distinguished country clusters in the level of inflation and interest rates at the time of this conflict and differences in the 2022 forecasts' changes for GDP, inflation, budget balance and unemployment. The results indicate that EU economies characterised by the most significant energy vulnerability economically suffer the most in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ISSN:2392-1641
2450-0097
DOI:10.18559/ebr.2023.4.1073