Are Correlations any Guide to Predictive Value?

When faced with the choice between various hypotheses purporting to explain the fluctuations of a certain variable, one is tempted to choose the hypothesis that shows the best correlation with known results in given circumstances and to use it to predict future fluctuations. In this article Dr Ferbe...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied Statistics 1956-06, Vol.5 (2), p.113-121
Main Author: Ferber, Robert
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carloadings
Correlation coefficients
Correlations
Economic fluctuations
Goodness of fit
Mathematical constants
Rail industry
Statistical forecasts
Statistical significance
Variable coefficients
Citations: Items that cite this one
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Summary:When faced with the choice between various hypotheses purporting to explain the fluctuations of a certain variable, one is tempted to choose the hypothesis that shows the best correlation with known results in given circumstances and to use it to predict future fluctuations. In this article Dr Ferber examines the adequacy of this procedure in practice.
ISSN:0035-9254
1467-9876
DOI:10.2307/2985494