A prognostic model for the prediction of generalized chronic periodontitis in patients with metabolic syndrome

• Published in: Bulletin of RSMU 2019-04 (2), p.43-47
• Main Authors: Petrukhina, NB, Zorina, OA, Shikh, EV, Kartysheva, EV, Kudryavtsev, AV
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 2500-1094; 2542-1204
• DOI: 10.24075/brsmu.2019.026

In this paper, we propose a model for predicting the risk of severe chronic generalized periodontitis (GCP) in patients with metabolic syndrome based on the levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) in the periodontal pocket exudate. The analysis of oral cavity cytokine profiles conducted in 537 patients with GCP and comorbid metabolic syndrome showed that increased TNF-α correlated with the severity of GCP: higher levels of TNF-α were observed in patients whose condition was more severe. The prognostic model built in Statistica. 10 allowed us to use TNF-α as a prognostic criterium for GCP severity. We determined the cut-off point above which a high risk of severe GCP can be concluded with 91.2% sensitivity and 70.8% specificity. The spreadsheet in Microsoft Exсel 2010 automatically computed the risk of severe GCP from a patient’s TNF-α concentrations in the PP, which makes the model convenient for routine clinical use in dentistry.