Revenue forecast models using hybrid intelligent methods

• Published in: International Journal of Mathematics and Computer in Engineering 2024-06, Vol.2 (1), p.117-124
• Main Authors: Topaloğlu, Gizem, Kalaycı, Tolga Ahmet, Pekel, Kaan, Akay, Mehmet Fatih
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 68T01; 68T07; 68T09; 68T20; 68Txx; hybrid methods; machine learning; marketplace; Revenue forecasting
• ISSN: 2956-7068; 2956-7068
• DOI: 10.2478/ijmce-2024-0009

The aim of this study is to forecast the revenue of a seller taking part in an online e-commerce marketplace by using hybrid intelligent methods to help the seller build a solid financial plan. For this purpose, three different approaches are applied in order to accurately forecast the revenue. In the first approach, after applying simple preprocessing steps on the dataset, forecast models are developed with Random Forest (RF). In the second approach, Isolation Forest (IF) is used to detect outliers on the dataset, and minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) is utilized to select the features that affect the quality of revenue forecast, correctly. In the last approach, a feature selection process is performed first and then the Density-Based Spatial Clustering and Application with Noise (DBSCAN) is used to cluster the dataset. After these processes are carried out, forecast models are developed with RF. The dataset used includes the daily revenue of a seller with several other features. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is used for evaluating the performance of the forecast models.