A Stochastic Model to Estimate Joint Fire Fratricide

A method for risk assessment of artillery fire randomly colliding with fixed wing aircraft is presented. The research lends itself to a general study of collision models. Current models of object collisions fall into three categories: the historical model, the gas particle model, and the satellite m...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Military operations research (Alexandria, Va.) Va.), 2012-01, Vol.17 (2), p.41-56
Main Authors: Holzmann, Timothy W., Cochran, Jeffery K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aircraft
Airspace
Altitude
Artillery
Ballistics
Fratricide
Military operations
Modeling
Operations research
Stochastic models
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Summary:A method for risk assessment of artillery fire randomly colliding with fixed wing aircraft is presented. The research lends itself to a general study of collision models. Current models of object collisions fall into three categories: the historical model, the gas particle model, and the satellite model. These categories vary in data requirements and mathematical representation of the impact event. The gas particle model is selected for its flexibility and robust estimation; however, current mathematical development in the literature does not include all spatial and dynamic components necessary for a general encounter (collision) model. For the specific application, quadratic formulas estimate the ballistic arc of artillery shells to provide instantaneous relative velocities. An extended process is numerically integrated over a relative volume within a collision radius during the conflict time window to provide a probability of collision. The model is implemented via an Excel spreadsheet providing scenario study capability in real time. Validation is provided by examining limiting behaviors and by a previous simulation study. Finally, several expertvetted scenarios are presented along with their results for discussion and inspection purposes. These results support continuing current policy of strict deconfliction in the case of manned aircraft.
ISSN:1082-5983
2163-2758
DOI:10.5711/1082598317241