Muertes, infecciones e inmunidad de rebaño en la pandemia por COVID-19: un estudio comparativo de las estrategias de control de la pandemia implementadas en Perú y Reino Unido

• Published in: Revista de la Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2022, Vol.70 (2), p.100-110
• Main Authors: Contreras Pulache, Hans, Moya Salazar, Jeel, Jaime-Quispe, Alexis, Cañari, Betsy, Zuñiga, Nahomi, Rojas-Zumaran, Victor
• Format: Article
• Language: Spanish
• Subjects: CoV; COVID; Herd Immunity; Inmunidad colectiva; Mortalidad (DeCS); Mortality (MeSH); Peru; Perú; Reino Unido; SARS; United Kingdom
• ISSN: 0120-0011; 2357-3848

Introduction: In light of the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented several containment and prevention measures to slow down the rapid spread of the disease. Objectives: To compare the COVID-19 pandemic containment strategies implemented in Peru [World Health Organization (WHO) - confinement and social distancing] and the United Kingdom [herd immunity (HI)] in terms of morbidity and mortality, and to simulate the implementation of HI in Peru during the initial stage of the pandemic. Materials and methods: Exploratory study with a simulation model based on official data obtained from both countries at the beginning of the pandemic. Mortality, case fatality, and infection rates documented within the first 55 days after the first COVID-19 case report in the United Kingdom and the start of the WHO-recommended containment and prevention strategy implementation in Peru were evaluated. Additionally, the impact of applying HI, according to WHO guidelines, as the initial strategy in Peru was simulated. The Paired-samples t-test was used to determine the differences between the two strategies at both stages of the study. Results: During the follow-up period, 15 034 and 33 931 COVID-19 cases were reported in the United Kingdom and Peru, respectively. The case fatality rate was higher in the United Kingdom (7.82% vs. 2.74%), while the cumulative mortality rate was higher in Peru (2.89 vs. 1.74×100 000 inhabitants p= 0.0001). Regarding the simulation, a minimum critical population of 60% (>19 million positive cases) was established for Peru to achieve HI, with 1 223 473.1 deaths and a hospitalization rate of 44 770×100 000 patients. Conclusions: During the follow-up period (55 days), the United Kingdom’s strategy resulted in a higher case fatality rate, while the Peruvian strategy in over twice as many COVID-19 cases. The HI simulation strategy in Peru showed a sharp increase in all unfavorable indicators of the pandemic. Introducción. Ante la amenaza de la pandemia por COVID-19, la mayoría de los países han establecido diversas medidas de control y prevención para disminuir la rápida propagación de esta enfermedad. Objetivos. Comparar las estrategias de control de la pandemia por COVID-19 implementadas en Perú (de confinamiento y distanciamiento social de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS)) y Reino Unido (de inmunidad de rebaño (IR)) en términos de morbimortalidad, y simular la implementación de la IR en Perú durante la etapa in