Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States

Zika virus is transitioning to become a long-term public health challenge, and countries should remain informed of the risk for emergence. We developed a stochastic epidemiologic model to profile risk for Zika virus emergence, including trimester-specific fetal risk across time, in all 3,208 countie...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Emerging infectious diseases 2020-04, Vol.26 (4), p.700-710
Main Authors: Mina, Michael J, Guterman, L Beryl, Allen, Kristen E, Omer, Saad B
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Births
Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States
control
Dengue fever
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Health aspects
Humans
mosquitoborne diseases
Mosquitoes
North America
Public health
Public health movements
Puerto Rico - epidemiology
Time
transmission
United States
United States - epidemiology
Vaccination
viruses
Zika
Zika Virus
Zika Virus Infection - epidemiology
Zika Virus Infection - prevention & control
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Summary:Zika virus is transitioning to become a long-term public health challenge, and countries should remain informed of the risk for emergence. We developed a stochastic epidemiologic model to profile risk for Zika virus emergence, including trimester-specific fetal risk across time, in all 3,208 counties in the United States, including Puerto Rico. Validation against known transmission in North America demonstrated accuracy to predict epidemic dynamics and absolute case counts across scales (R  = 0.98). We found that, although sporadic single transmission events could occur in most US counties, outbreaks will likely be restricted to the Gulf Coast region and to late spring through autumn. Seasonal fluctuations in birth rates will confer natural population-level protection against early-trimester infections. Overall, outbreak control will be more effective and efficient than prevention, and vaccination will be most effective at >70% coverage. Our county-level risk profiles should serve as a critical resource for resource allocation.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059
DOI:10.3201/eid2604.181739