A Multivariate Scaling System Is Essential to Characterize the Tropical Cyclones' Risk

• Published in: Earth's future 2022-05, Vol.10 (5), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Alipour, Atieh, Yarveysi, Farnaz, Moftakhari, Hamed, Song, Jae Yeol, Moradkhani, Hamid
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Coasts; Compound Hazards; Copulas; Cyclones; Data assimilation; Emergency response; Floods; Hurricane winds; Hurricanes; Precipitation; Probability; Rain; Rainfall; Scaling; Scaling System; Storm damage; Storm surges; Tidal waves; Time series; Tropical Cyclones; Wind; Wind speed
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002635

The current Tropical Cyclones (TCs) scaling system, Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), characterizes the hazardousness of these events solely based on wind speed. This is despite the fact that TCs are classic examples of compound hazards during which multiple hazard drivers that are wind, storm surge, and intense rainfall interact and yield in impacts greater than the sum of individuals. Studies have shown that people's decision to evacuate is highly related to the estimated SSHWS category. Thus, the current SSHWS ‐based classification of TCs yields an underestimation of the hazardousness of TCs and so may misguide the threatened communities. Here, we propose a new scaling system that uses Copulas for categorizing TCs based on the likelihood of a given set of severity for rainfall, surge, and wind speed. We use a variety of data sources to obtain the timing and intensity of wind speed, rainfall along the track, and the associated maximum surge for 102 TCs that have made landfall in the United States' Atlantic and Gulf coasts between 1979 and 2020. Comparing the outputs of our scaling system with official damage reporting for the costliest TCs in the history of the United States, we show that the proposed approach significantly improves TC hazard communication and can be useful for informing decision makers and emergency responders. Key Points The current Tropical Cyclones (TCs) scaling system solely based on wind speed, underestimates the hazardousness of events We propose a new scaling system that takes into account the compound hazard of TCs and uses Copulas to categorize them The proposed approach can significantly improve TCs' hazard communication