Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic

• Published in: The cryosphere 2024-04, Vol.18 (4), p.1791-1815
• Main Authors: Durand, Charlotte, Finn, Tobias Sebastian, Farchi, Alban, Bocquet, Marc, Boutin, Guillaume, Ãlason, Einar
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analysis; Arctic sea ice; Atmospheric models; Climatology; Datasets; Deep learning; Forecast errors; Ice; Ice cover; Ice models; Ice thickness; Lead time; Mathematical models; Modelling; Neural networks; Rheological properties; Sea ice; Sea ice models; Simulation; Temperature; Thickness measurement; Wind
• ISSN: 1994-0424; 1994-0416; 1994-0424; 1994-0416
• DOI: 10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024

A novel generation of sea-ice models with elasto-brittle rheologies, such as neXtSIM, can represent sea-ice processes with an unprecedented accuracy at the mesoscale for resolutions of around 10 km. As these models are computationally expensive, we introduce supervised deep learning techniques for surrogate modeling of the sea-ice thickness from neXtSIM simulations. We adapt a convolutional U-Net architecture to an Arctic-wide setup by taking the land–sea mask with partial convolutions into account. Trained to emulate the sea-ice thickness at a lead time of 12 h, the neural network can be iteratively applied to predictions for up to 1 year. The improvements of the surrogate model over a persistence forecast persist from 12 h to roughly 1 year, with improvements of up to 50 % in the forecast error. Moreover, the predictability gain for the sea-ice thickness measured against the daily climatology extends to over 6 months. By using atmospheric forcings as additional input, the surrogate model can represent advective and thermodynamical processes which influence the sea-ice thickness and the growth and melting therein. While iterating, the surrogate model experiences diffusive processes which result in a loss of fine-scale structures. However, this smoothing increases the coherence of large-scale features and thereby the stability of the model. Therefore, based on these results, we see huge potential for surrogate modeling of state-of-the-art sea-ice models with neural networks.