A Chemical Transport Model Emulator for the Interactive Evaluation of Mercury Emission Reduction Scenarios

Implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury requires all parties to “control, and where feasible, reduce” mercury (Hg) emissions from a convention-specified set of sources. However, the convention does not specify the extent of the measures to be adopted, which may only be analysed by decis...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Atmosphere 2020-08, Vol.11 (8), p.878
Main Authors: De Simone, Francesco, D’Amore, Francesco, Marasco, Francesco, Carbone, Francesco, Bencardino, Mariantonia, Hedgecock, Ian M., Cinnirella, Sergio, Sprovieri, Francesca, Pirrone, Nicola
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospheric models
Chemical transport
Climate change
Computer simulation
Confidence intervals
Contamination
CTM emulator
Decision analysis
Decision making
decision support system
Decision support systems
Emission analysis
emission control
emission reduction
Emissions
Emissions control
Emulators
Environmental law
Evaluation
Experiments
Fluxes
International law
Mathematical models
Mercury
Mercury (metal)
minamata convention
Numerical models
Oxidation
Receptors
Spreadsheets
Statistics
Training
Transport
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Summary:Implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury requires all parties to “control, and where feasible, reduce” mercury (Hg) emissions from a convention-specified set of sources. However, the convention does not specify the extent of the measures to be adopted, which may only be analysed by decision-makers using modelled scenarios. Currently, the numerical models available to study the Hg atmospheric cycle require significant expertise and high-end hardware, with results which are generally available on a time frame of days to weeks. In this work we present HERMES, a statistical emulator built on the output of a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) for Hg (ECHMERIT), to simulate changes in anthropogenic Hg (Hganthr) deposition fluxes in a source-receptor framework, due to perturbations to Hganthr emissions and the associated statistical significance of the changes. The HERMES emulator enables stakeholders to evaluate the implementation of different Hganthr emission scenarios in an interactive and real-time manner, simulating the application of the different Best Available Technologies. HERMES provides the scientific soundness of a full CTM numerical framework in an interactive and user-friendly spreadsheet, without the necessity for specific training or formation and is a first step towards a more comprehensive, and integrated, decision support system to aid decision-makers in the implementation of the Minamata Convention.
ISSN:2073-4433
2073-4433
DOI:10.3390/atmos11080878