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A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to cal...
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description | The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid‐future period (2040–2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% ± 3% to 53% ± 4%. Conversely, during the far‐future (2080–2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% ± 4% to 96% ± 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth.
Plain Language Summary
The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high‐altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco‐hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high‐emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco‐hydrological processes.
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doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2023EF003897 |
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Plain Language Summary
The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high‐altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco‐hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high‐emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco‐hydrological processes.
Key Points
A new method using the frost number model with Kappa coefficient is proposed to diagnose permafrost distribution
Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will experience the least degradation (33% ± 3%) under SSP126, and the most (96% ± 3%) under SSP585 in 2080–2099
Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is anticipated to reduce soil moisture and runoff, adversely affecting vegetation growth</description><identifier>ISSN: 2328-4277</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2328-4277</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003897</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Bognor Regis: John Wiley & Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>21st century ; Climate change ; CMIP6 ; Degradation ; Ecohydrology ; Freezing ; Frost ; frost number model ; future scenario ; High altitude ; Hydrologic processes ; Hydrology ; Kappa coefficient ; Mathematical analysis ; Normalized difference vegetative index ; Permafrost ; Permafrost distribution ; Soil degradation ; Soil moisture ; Temperature ; Thawing ; Tibetan Plateau ; Vegetation ; Vegetation growth ; Vegetation index</subject><ispartof>Earth's future, 2024-01, Vol.12 (1), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>2024 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.</rights><rights>2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4735-4e4080a1ccc23a9cc097dc304917c87d165e426355ea0a575be1ae0596a111eb3</cites><orcidid>0000-0002-1156-3197 ; 0000-0003-3234-7458 ; 0000-0002-0573-1625</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2919443233/fulltextPDF?pq-origsite=primo$$EPDF$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.proquest.com/docview/2919443233?pq-origsite=primo$$EHTML$$P50$$Gproquest$$Hfree_for_read</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,11562,25753,27924,27925,37012,44590,46052,46476,75126</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Li, Hu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Xiaoduo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nie, Xiaowei</creatorcontrib><title>A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau</title><title>Earth's future</title><description>The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid‐future period (2040–2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% ± 3% to 53% ± 4%. Conversely, during the far‐future (2080–2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% ± 4% to 96% ± 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth.
Plain Language Summary
The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high‐altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco‐hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high‐emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco‐hydrological processes.
Key Points
A new method using the frost number model with Kappa coefficient is proposed to diagnose permafrost distribution
Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will experience the least degradation (33% ± 3%) under SSP126, and the most (96% ± 3%) under SSP585 in 2080–2099
Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is anticipated to reduce soil moisture and runoff, adversely affecting vegetation growth</description><subject>21st century</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>CMIP6</subject><subject>Degradation</subject><subject>Ecohydrology</subject><subject>Freezing</subject><subject>Frost</subject><subject>frost number model</subject><subject>future scenario</subject><subject>High altitude</subject><subject>Hydrologic processes</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Kappa coefficient</subject><subject>Mathematical analysis</subject><subject>Normalized difference vegetative index</subject><subject>Permafrost</subject><subject>Permafrost distribution</subject><subject>Soil degradation</subject><subject>Soil moisture</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Thawing</subject><subject>Tibetan Plateau</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><subject>Vegetation growth</subject><subject>Vegetation index</subject><issn>2328-4277</issn><issn>2328-4277</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2024</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>24P</sourceid><sourceid>PIMPY</sourceid><sourceid>DOA</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kT1PAzEMhk8IJBCw8QMisVLIZ5OMqLSAxNdQ5siXuG2q4wJJKsS_56AIMeHFlv34tS03zQmj54xye8EpF9MZpcJYvdMccMHNSHKtd__E-81xKWs6mNVUKH3QhEvygO_kHusqBZIW5CrCsk8l9ktSV0huYqkpRw8dgT6Qp5zW6CsGMllBv8RCYk-eML_AIqdSSeq_u-axxQpDpYOKsDlq9hbQFTz-8YfN82w6n9yM7h6vbyeXdyMvtVAjiZIaCsx7zwVY74ctgxdUWqa90YGNFUo-FkohUFBatcgAqbJjYIxhKw6b261uSLB2rzm-QP5wCaL7TqS8dJBr9B06JhT1TAYFICSTaFotg-F23BpODZeD1ulW6zWntw2W6tZpk_thfccts1IKLsRAnW0pP5xfMi5-pzLqvt7i_r5lwPkWf48dfvzLuulszpk0SnwCjwiK3g</recordid><startdate>202401</startdate><enddate>202401</enddate><creator>Li, Hu</creator><creator>Pan, Xiaoduo</creator><creator>Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali</creator><creator>Nie, Xiaowei</creator><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><general>Wiley</general><scope>24P</scope><scope>WIN</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PIMPY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>DOA</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1156-3197</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3234-7458</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0573-1625</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>202401</creationdate><title>A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau</title><author>Li, Hu ; Pan, Xiaoduo ; Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali ; Nie, Xiaowei</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4735-4e4080a1ccc23a9cc097dc304917c87d165e426355ea0a575be1ae0596a111eb3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2024</creationdate><topic>21st century</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>CMIP6</topic><topic>Degradation</topic><topic>Ecohydrology</topic><topic>Freezing</topic><topic>Frost</topic><topic>frost number model</topic><topic>future scenario</topic><topic>High altitude</topic><topic>Hydrologic processes</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Kappa coefficient</topic><topic>Mathematical analysis</topic><topic>Normalized difference vegetative index</topic><topic>Permafrost</topic><topic>Permafrost distribution</topic><topic>Soil degradation</topic><topic>Soil moisture</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Thawing</topic><topic>Tibetan Plateau</topic><topic>Vegetation</topic><topic>Vegetation growth</topic><topic>Vegetation index</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Li, Hu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pan, Xiaoduo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nie, Xiaowei</creatorcontrib><collection>Open Access: Wiley-Blackwell Open Access Journals</collection><collection>Wiley Online Library Free Backfiles</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>Publicly Available Content Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Directory of Open Access Journals</collection><jtitle>Earth's future</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Li, Hu</au><au>Pan, Xiaoduo</au><au>Washakh, Rana Muhammad Ali</au><au>Nie, Xiaowei</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau</atitle><jtitle>Earth's future</jtitle><date>2024-01</date><risdate>2024</risdate><volume>12</volume><issue>1</issue><epage>n/a</epage><issn>2328-4277</issn><eissn>2328-4277</eissn><abstract>The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid‐future period (2040–2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% ± 3% to 53% ± 4%. Conversely, during the far‐future (2080–2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% ± 4% to 96% ± 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth.
Plain Language Summary
The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high‐altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco‐hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high‐emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco‐hydrological processes.
Key Points
A new method using the frost number model with Kappa coefficient is proposed to diagnose permafrost distribution
Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will experience the least degradation (33% ± 3%) under SSP126, and the most (96% ± 3%) under SSP585 in 2080–2099
Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is anticipated to reduce soil moisture and runoff, adversely affecting vegetation growth</abstract><cop>Bognor Regis</cop><pub>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</pub><doi>10.1029/2023EF003897</doi><tpages>22</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1156-3197</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3234-7458</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0573-1625</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | 21st century Climate change CMIP6 Degradation Ecohydrology Freezing Frost frost number model future scenario High altitude Hydrologic processes Hydrology Kappa coefficient Mathematical analysis Normalized difference vegetative index Permafrost Permafrost distribution Soil degradation Soil moisture Temperature Thawing Tibetan Plateau Vegetation Vegetation growth Vegetation index |
title | A New Method of Diagnosing the Historical and Projected Changes in Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau |
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