Time series analysis of comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil have not been fully explored. Using publicly available data from the Brazilian Mortality Information (SIM) and Information System on Live Births (SINASC) databases, we used two complementary forecasting models to predict...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2024-10, Vol.14 (1), p.23960-10, Article 23960
Main Authors: Cambou, Mary Catherine, David, Hollie, Moucheraud, Corrina, Nielsen-Saines, Karin, Comulada, Warren Scott, Macinko, James
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/250/255
692/700/478
Adult
Births
Brazil
Brazil - epidemiology
Comprehensive maternal deaths
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - mortality
Databases, Factual
Female
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Maternal Death - statistics & numerical data
Maternal mortality
Maternal Mortality - trends
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Pregnancy
SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Time series analysis
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil have not been fully explored. Using publicly available data from the Brazilian Mortality Information (SIM) and Information System on Live Births (SINASC) databases, we used two complementary forecasting models to predict estimates of maternal mortality ratios using maternal deaths (MMR) and comprehensive maternal deaths (MMRc) in the years 2020 and 2021 based on data from 2008 to 2019. We calculated national and regional standardized mortality ratio estimates for maternal deaths (SMR) and comprehensive maternal deaths (SMRc) for 2020 and 2021. The observed MMRc in 2021 was more than double the predicted MMRc based on the Holt-Winters and autoregressive integrated moving average models (127.12 versus 60.89 and 59.12 per 100,000 live births, respectively). We found persisting sub-national variation in comprehensive maternal mortality: SMRc ranged from 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64, 1.86) in the Northeast to 2.70 (95% CI 2.45, 2.96) in the South in 2021. The observed national estimates for comprehensive maternal deaths in 2021 were the highest in Brazil in the past three decades. Increased resources for prenatal care, maternal health, and postpartum care may be needed to reverse the national trend in comprehensive maternal deaths.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-74704-x