Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability

The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet’s overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Latin american journal of aquatic research 2015-09, Vol.43 (4), p.651-661
Main Authors: Almendarez-Hernández, Luis César, Ponce-Díaz, Germán, Lluch-Belda, Daniel, Del Monte-Luna, Pablo, Saldívar-Lucio, Romeo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
análisis de sensibilidad
camarón
Climate change
Climatic changes
Decapoda
Economics
FISHERIES
Fishing
Fishing vessels
golfo de California
incertidumbre
MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
Marine crustaceans
México
OCEANOGRAPHY
Physical characteristics
Probability theory
riesgo
Risk assessment
Risks
Sea surface
Shellfish
Shrimp fisheries
Studies
Surface temperature
Uncertainty
Variability
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Summary:The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet’s overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economic simulation pointed to the vessel type used in Guaymas (Sonora) as the most efficient one under a neutral climate change scenario, showing a homogeneous behaviour in physical characteristics and mode of operation. By contrast, under a scenario of a monotonic rise in sea surface temperature, the shrimp fishery faces a greater risk of incurring economic losses. The simulated climate behaviour scenarios revealed that the activity involves a moderate economic profitability under the neutral scenario; however, under the warming scenario, profitability may be low or even nil due to the risks and uncertainty resulting from the influence of environmental phenomena.
ISSN:0718-560X
0718-560X
DOI:10.3856/vol43-issue4-fulltext-4