The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context

• Published in: Judgment and decision making 2022-07, Vol.17 (4), p.849-882
• Main Authors: Schneider, Claudia R, Freeman, Alexandra L.J, Spiegelhalter, David, van der Linden, Sander
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analysis; Decision making; decision making.nakeywords; Public health; quality of evidence; science communication; scientific uncertainty; trustworthiness
• ISSN: 1930-2975; 1930-2975
• DOI: 10.1017/S1930297500008962

Large-scale societal issues such as public health crises highlight the need to communicate scientific information, which is often uncertain, accurately to the public and policy makers. The challenge is to communicate the inherent scientific uncertainty — especially about the underlying quality of the evidence — whilst supporting informed decision making. Little is known about the effects that such scientific uncertainty has on people’s judgments of the information. In three experimental studies (total N =6,489), we investigate the influence of scientific uncertainty about the quality of the evidence on people’s perceived trustworthiness of the information and decision making. We compare the provision of high, low, and ambiguous quality-of-evidence indicators against providing no such cues. Results show an asymmetric relationship: people react more strongly to cues of low quality of evidence than they do to high quality of evidence compared to no cue. While responses to a cue of high quality of evidence are not significantly different from no cue; a cue of low or uncertain quality of evidence is accompanied by lower perceived trustworthiness and lower use of the information in decision making. Cues of uncertain quality of evidence have a similar effect to those of low quality. These effects do not change with the addition of a reason for the indicated quality level. Our findings shed light on the effects of the communication of scientific uncertainty on judgment and decision making, and provide insights for evidence-based communications and informed decision making for policy makers and the public.