Caution Is Needed When Using Niche Models to Infer Changes in Species Abundance: The Case of Two Sympatric Raptor Populations

Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier ( ) a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Animals (Basel) 2021-07, Vol.11 (7), p.2020
Main Authors: Regos, Adrián, Tapia, Luis, Gil-Carrera, Alberto, Domínguez, Jesús
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abiotic factors
Abundance
Accuracy
Biodiversity
Bogs
Breeding
Circus cyaneus
Circus pygargus
Ecological niches
Habitat loss
habitat suitability models
Habitats
Heaths
Land use
Landsat
Landsat satellites
Livestock
mountain heathlands
Mountains
Niches
open-habitat raptors
Peat
Peat bogs
Population
population changes
Population studies
Populations
Relative abundance
Satellite imagery
species abundance–habitat suitability relationship
Sympatric populations
Temporal variations
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Summary:Despite the mounting evidence supporting positive relationships between species abundance and habitat suitability, the capacity of ecological niche models (ENMs) to capture variations in population abundance remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on sympatric populations of hen harrier ( ) and Montagu's harrier ( ), surveyed in 1997 and 2017 in an upland moor area in northwestern Spain. The ENMs performed very well for both species (with area under the ROC curve and true skill statistic values of up to 0.9 and 0.75). The presence of both species was mainly correlated with heathlands, although the normalized difference water index derived from Landsat images was the most important for hen harrier, indicating a greater preference of this species for wet heaths and peat bogs. The findings showed that ENM-derived habitat suitability was significantly correlated with the species abundance, thus reinforcing the use of ENMs as a proxy for species abundance. However, the temporal variation in species abundance was not significantly explained by changes in habitat suitability predicted by the ENMs, indicating the need for caution when using these types of models to infer changes in population abundance.
ISSN:2076-2615
2076-2615
DOI:10.3390/ani11072020