Future climate or land use? Attribution of changes in surface runoff in a typical Sahelian landscape

In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to assess changes in surface runoff between the baseline (1995–2014) and future (2031–2050) periods in the Tougou watershed \((37~\mathrm{km}^{2})\) in Burkina Faso. The study uses a combination of land use maps (for current and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Comptes rendus. Geoscience 2023-01, Vol.355 (S1), p.1-28
Main Authors: Yonaba, Roland, Mounirou, Lawani Adjadi, Tazen, Fowé, Koïta, Mahamadou, Biaou, Angelbert Chabi, Zouré, Cheick Oumar, Queloz, Pierre, Karambiri, Harouna, Yacouba, Hamma
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural land
Climate change
Climate models
Hydrologic cycle
Hydrological modelling
Hydrology
Land use
Land use/land cover change
Runoff
Sahel
Surface runoff
SWAT
Tougou watershed
Water
Water management
Watersheds
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Summary:In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to assess changes in surface runoff between the baseline (1995–2014) and future (2031–2050) periods in the Tougou watershed \((37~\mathrm{km}^{2})\) in Burkina Faso. The study uses a combination of land use maps (for current and future periods) and a bias-corrected ensemble of 9 CMIP6 climate models, under two warming scenarios. An increase in rainfall (13.7% to 18.8%) is projected, which is the major contributor to the increase in surface runoff (24.2% to 34.3%). The land use change narrative (i.e. conversion of bare areas to croplands) is expected to decrease in surface runoff, albeit minor in comparison to the effect of future climate change. Similar findings are observed for annual maximum surface runoff. This study sheds light on the need to consider simultaneously future climate and land use in framing water management policies.
ISSN:1778-7025
1631-0713
1778-7025
DOI:10.5802/crgeos.179