Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes

Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic prec...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2022-04, Vol.13 (1), p.2002-2002, Article 2002
Main Authors: Ardid, Alberto, Dempsey, David, Caudron, Corentin, Cronin, Shane
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/2151/2809
704/2151/508
704/2151/598
Correlation analysis
Earthquake prediction
Groundwater
Humanities and Social Sciences
Machine learning
Monitoring
multidisciplinary
Precursors
Pressurization
Real time
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Tourists
Volcanic activity
Volcanic eruptions
Volcanoes
Warning systems
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Summary:Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes. Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Using a machine learning approach, the authors here discover distinctive patterns hidden in the seismic signals of a number of New Zealand and Alaskan volcanoes, that occur before most of the eruptions studied.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y