Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal

Commuting flows and long-distance travel are important spreading factors of viruses and particularly airborne ones. Therefore, it is relevant to examine the association among diverse mobility scenarios and the spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 cases. We intended to analyze the patterns of virus sp...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2022, Vol.17 (9), p.e0274286
Main Authors: Oliveira, Sandra, Ribeiro, Ana Isabel, Nogueira, Paulo, Rocha, Jorge
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Metropolitan Areas
Mobility
Portugal
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Commuting flows and long-distance travel are important spreading factors of viruses and particularly airborne ones. Therefore, it is relevant to examine the association among diverse mobility scenarios and the spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 cases. We intended to analyze the patterns of virus spreading linked to different mobility scenarios, in order to better comprehend the effect of the lockdown measures, and how such measures can be better informed. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas, Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA). Based on an adapted SEIR (Suscetible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, we estimated the number of new daily infections during one year, according to different mobility scenarios: restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, public transport use, and a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. The trends of new daily infections were further explored using time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping. Mobility restrictions resulted in lower numbers of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between March and September 2020, the official number of new infections followed overall a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At the municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas. The analysis of the effects of mobility in virus spread within different municipalities and regions could help tailoring future strategies and increase the public acceptance of eventual restrictions.
ISSN:1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0274286