Impacts of Forecast Time and Verification Area Setting on the Targeted Observation of Typhoon

• Published in: Atmosphere 2024-11, Vol.15 (11), p.1335
• Main Authors: Kang, Jiaqi, Guo, Jianxia, Wang, Jia, Zhang, Chao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accuracy; Deviation; Dropsondes; Effectiveness; ETS; Forecast errors; Forecast improvement; Hurricanes; Kalman filters; Methods; Noise sensitivity; Observation times; Rain; Real time; sensitive area; Simulation methods; targeted observations; typhoon; Typhoon forecasting; Typhoons; Verification; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 2073-4433; 2073-4433
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos15111335

The results of the identification of sensitive areas are affected by the forecast time and verification area settings in targeted observations. Understanding this setting issue is important for improving the effectiveness of the identification of sensitive areas in real-time field campaigns. To determine this, a series of experiments were carried out based on the Ensemble Transform Sensitivity (ETS) method, and the results are as follows: (1) First, Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were conducted to assimilate simulated dropsondes in sensitive areas (SENS) or non-sensitive areas (OTHR). The results showed that the SENS experiment improved forecasts of typhoon intensity, track, precipitation score, and RMSE of forecast elements. However, the OTHR experiment only improved the forecast in some aspects and even had negative effects on other aspects. This indicates that the sensitive areas identified by the ETS method are effective. (2) Different forecast time experiments were carried out. There were significant differences between the sensitive areas of fixed verification times and variable targeted observation times, indicating that the sensitive areas changed greatly with time. In the field campaign, it was necessary to calculate the sensitive area for multiple times in advance and to design or adjust the observation scheme according to the time. (3) Finally, comparative experiments of position deviation and size change in the verification area were carried out. It was found that for a big deviation, too large or too small a verification area will result in significant differences in the sensitive areas. Based on the study in this article, a verification area size of about 6° × 6° is recommended; this can not only accommodate the position deviation of the verification area from the typhoon center caused by forecast errors, but also does not contain too much noise unrelated to typhoons, which may affect the accuracy of identification of sensitive areas.