Choosing the Lesser Evil: Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru

The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica 2022-06, Vol.11 (1), p.1-26
Main Authors: Arce, Moisés, Vera, Sofía
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
economic voting
Election results
forecasting
Organizational structure
peru
Presidential elections
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Summary:The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied.
ISSN:1852-9003
2660-700X
2660-700X
DOI:10.14201/rlop.25805