Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning

In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energies (Basel) 2019-03, Vol.12 (5), p.826
Main Authors: Medina Maçaira, Paula, Monteiro Cyrillo, Yasmin, Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando, Castro Souza, Reinaldo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autoregressive models
Construction
Demand
Dynamic programming
Electric power generation
Energy
intermittent sources
long-term forecasting
Markov analysis
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Mathematical models
Methods
net demand
Optimization
Optimization models
Smart grid technology
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Stochastic models
Time series
Wind power
wind power forecasting
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Summary:In the past two decades, wind power’s share of the energy mix has grown significantly in Brazil. However, nowadays planning electricity operation in Brazil basically involves evaluating the future conditions of energy supply from hydro and thermal sources over the planning horizon. In this context, wind power sources are not stochastically treated. This work applies an innovative approach that incorporates wind power generation in the Brazilian hydro-thermal dispatch using the analytical method of Frequency & Duration. The proposed approach is applied to Brazil’s Northeast region, covering the planning period from July 2017 to December 2021, using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate wind power scenarios. The obtained results are more conservative than the one currently used by the National Electric System Operator, since the proposed approach forecasts 1.8% less wind generation, especially during peak periods, and 0.67% more thermal generation. This conservatism can reduce the chance of water reservoir depletion and, also an ineffective dispatch.
ISSN:1996-1073
1996-1073
DOI:10.3390/en12050826