Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years and implications for climatic risk

• Published in: Communications earth & environment 2022-02, Vol.3 (1), p.1-9, Article 33
• Main Authors: Vance, Tessa R., Kiem, Anthony S., Jong, Lenneke M., Roberts, Jason L., Plummer, Christopher T., Moy, Andrew D., Curran, Mark A. J., van Ommen, Tas D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate variability; Cores; Drought; Environmental risk; Phases; Reconstruction; Risk
• ISSN: 2662-4435; 2662-4435
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00359-z

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an index which defines decadal climate variability throughout the Pacific, is generally assumed to have positive and negative phases that each last 20-30 years. Here we present a 2000-year reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, obtained using information preserved in Antarctic ice cores, that shows negative phases are short (7 ± 5 years) and infrequent (occurring 10% of the time) departures from a predominantly neutral-positive state that lasts decades (61 ± 56 years). These findings suggest that Pacific Basin climate risk is poorly characterised due to over-representation of negative phases in post-1900 observations. We demonstrate the implications of this for eastern Australia, where drought risk is elevated during neutral-positive phases, and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of climate risk for all locations affected by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The initiation and future frequency of negative phases should also be a research priority given their prevalence in more recent centuries.