Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting chronic kidney disease after liver transplantation: a multi-center retrospective study

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a frequent complication after liver transplantation (LT) and associated with poor prognosis. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 515 adult patients who underwent LT in our center. They were randomly divided into a training set (n = 360) and an internal test set...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2023-07, Vol.13 (1), p.11380-11380, Article 11380
Main Authors: He, Zenglei, Lin, Yimou, Dong, Siyi, Ke, Qinghong, Zheng, Shusen, Ling, Qi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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Adult
Glomerular filtration rate
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Infant
Kidney diseases
Kidney transplantation
Kidneys
Liver diseases
Liver transplantation
Liver Transplantation - adverse effects
Liver transplants
Medical prognosis
multidisciplinary
Nomograms
Regression analysis
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - complications
Renal Insufficiency, Chronic - surgery
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Survival
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Summary:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a frequent complication after liver transplantation (LT) and associated with poor prognosis. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 515 adult patients who underwent LT in our center. They were randomly divided into a training set (n = 360) and an internal test set (n = 155). Another 118 recipients in other centers served as external validation set. Univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis were used to determine risk factors. A nomogram model was developed to predict post-LT CKD. The incidence of post-LT CKD in our center was 16.9% (87/515) during a median follow-up time of 22.73 months. The overall survival of recipients with severe CKD (stage IV and V) were significantly lower than those with non or mild CKD (stage III) ( p  = 0.0015). A nomogram model was established based on recipient’s age, anhepatic phase, estimated glomerular filtration rate and triglyceride levels at 30 days after LT. The calibration curves for post-LT CKD prediction in the nomogram were consistent with the actual observation in both the internal and external validation set. In conclusion, severe post-LT CKD resulted in a significantly reduced survival in liver recipient. The newly established nomogram model had good predictive ability for post-LT CKD.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-38626-4