Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would infl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Viruses 2023-03, Vol.15 (4), p.892
Main Authors: Navarro Mamani, Dennis A, Ramos Huere, Heydi, Vera Buendia, Renzo, Rojas, Miguel, Chunga, Wilfredo Arque, Valdez Gutierrez, Edgar, Vergara Abarca, Walter, Rivera Gerónimo, Hermelinda, Altamiranda-Saavedra, Mariano
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Bluetongue
Bluetongue virus
Calibration
Cattle
Ceratopogonidae
Climate Change
Climatic changes
Culicoides insignis
Deer
Distribution
ecological niche
Ecosystem
Environmental aspects
Epidemics
Epidemiology
General circulation models
Influence
Insect Vectors
Niche overlap
Peru
Peru - epidemiology
Precipitation
Reoviruses
Ruminants
Sheep
Variables
Vectors
Virus research
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Summary:Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV ( = 145) and ( = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence-absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.
ISSN:1999-4915
1999-4915
DOI:10.3390/v15040892