Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case

The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Viruses 2021-05, Vol.13 (5), p.917
Main Authors: Candel, Francisco Javier, Viayna, Elisabet, Callejo, Daniel, Ramos, Raul, San-Roman-Montero, Jesús, Barreiro, Pablo, Carretero, María del Mar, Kolipiński, Adam, Canora, Jesus, Zapatero, Antonio, Runken, Michael Chris
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age groups
Asymptomatic
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 vaccines
Decision making
Disease transmission
economic impact
Epidemic models
Epidemiology
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
health policy
Herd immunity
Hospitalization
Infections
Mathematical models
molecular test
Pandemics
Patients
Population
Prediction models
SEIR
Sensitivity analysis
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Simulation
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Summary:The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.
ISSN:1999-4915
1999-4915
DOI:10.3390/v13050917