Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems

• Published in: Nature communications 2023-10, Vol.14 (1), p.6379-6379, Article 6379
• Main Authors: Sundar, Srihari, Craig, Michael T., Payne, Ashley E., Brayshaw, David J., Lehner, Flavio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 639/4077/4073; 704/106/35; Adequacy; Anomalies; Energy consumption; Energy usage; Failure; High pressure; Humanities and Social Sciences; Meteorology; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Solar radiation; Supply & demand; Surface temperature; Synoptic meteorology; Weather; Weather patterns; Wind; Wind speed
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41875-6

Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. At up to 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all RA failures. The highest pressure anomaly is the dominant driver, accounting for 20-100% of risk hours and 43-100% of cumulative risk at 60% renewable penetration. The three high pressure patterns exhibit positive surface temperature anomalies, mixed surface solar radiation anomalies, and negative wind speed anomalies across our region, which collectively increase demand and decrease supply. Our characterized meteorological drivers align with meteorology during the California 2020 rolling blackouts, indicating continued vulnerability of power systems to these impactful weather patterns as renewables grow. Sundar and colleagues characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive resource adequacy failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. They find that at 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all resource adequacy failures.