Confronting the Convective Gray Zone in the Global Configuration of the Met Office Unified Model

• Published in: Journal of advances in modeling earth systems 2023-05, Vol.15 (5), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Tomassini, Lorenzo, Willett, Martin, Sellar, Alistair, Lock, Adrian, Walters, David, Whitall, Michael, Sanchez, Claudio, Heming, Julian, Earnshaw, Paul, Rodriguez, José M., Ackerley, Duncan, Xavier, Prince, Franklin, Charmaine, Senior, Catherine A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmospheric models; atmospheric variability and predictability; Boundary conditions; Climate change; Convection; convection‐circulation interaction; convective gray zone; Eddies; Ensemble forecasting; kilometer‐scale global atmospheric modeling; Modelling; Parameterization; Physics; Resolution; Simulation; Turbulence; Turbulence models
• ISSN: 1942-2466; 1942-2466
• DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003418

In atmospheric models with kilometer‐scale grids the resolution approaches the scale of convection. As a consequence the most energetic eddies in the atmosphere are partially resolved and partially unresolved. The modeling challenge to represent convection partially explicitly and partially as a subgrid process is called the convective gray zone problem. The gray zone issue has previously been discussed in the context of regional models, but the evolution in regional models is constrained by the lateral boundary conditions. Here we explore the convective gray zone starting from a defined global configuration of the Met Office Unified Model using initialized forecasts and comparing different model formulations to observations. The focus is on convection and turbulence, but some aspects of the model dynamics are also considered. The global model is run at nominal 5 km resolution and thus contributions from both resolved and subgrid turbulent and convective fluxes are non‐negligible. The main conclusion is that in the present assessment, the configurations which include scale‐aware turbulence and a carefully reduced and simplified mass‐flux convection scheme outperform both the configuration with fully parameterized convection as well as a configuration in which the subgrid convection parameterization is switched off completely. The results are more conclusive with regard to convective organization and tropical variability than extratropical predictability. The present study thus endorses the strategy to further develop scale‐aware physics schemes and to pursue an operational implementation of the global 5 km‐resolution model to be used alongside other ensemble forecasts to allow researchers and forecasters to further assess these simulations. Plain Language Summary An in‐depth exploration of kilometer‐scale global atmospheric modeling in the context of the current Met Office modeling system, the Met Office Unified Model, is presented. All simulations were performed using a global atmosphere model at nominal 5 km resolution. The model resolution thus resides in the so‐called convective gray zone where the grid length approaches the scale of turbulence and convection, and contributions from both resolved and subgrid convective and turbulent fluxes are non‐negligible. A case study approach has been taken in which various testbed cases are defined and model forecasts are evaluated against observations. The focus is on the representation of convection, turbulence