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No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector
Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO 2 emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO 2 emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gauss...
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| Published in: | Nature communications 2021-08, Vol.12 (1), p.4675-9, Article 4675 |
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| creator | Luke, Max Somani, Priyanshi Cotterman, Turner Suri, Dhruv Lee, Stephen J. |
| description | Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO
2
emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO
2
emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO
2
emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO
2
emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO
2
emissions in the U.S. power sector.
COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. Here the authors assess whether such reductions would have occurred in the United States in the absence of the pandemic, as well as the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41467-021-24959-z |
| format | article |
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2
emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO
2
emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO
2
emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO
2
emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO
2
emissions in the U.S. power sector.
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2
emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO
2
emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO
2
emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO
2
emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO
2
emissions in the U.S. power sector.
COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. 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2
emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO
2
emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO
2
emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO
2
emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO
2
emissions in the U.S. power sector.
COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. Here the authors assess whether such reductions would have occurred in the United States in the absence of the pandemic, as well as the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>34344875</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41467-021-24959-z</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4839-7644</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5949-8136</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7562-7623</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| language | eng |
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| source | Publicly Available Content Database; Springer Nature - Connect here FIRST to enable access; PubMed Central; Coronavirus Research Database; Springer Nature - nature.com Journals - Fully Open Access |
| subjects | 704/844/4066 706/4066/4068 706/4066/4076 Air Pollutants - analysis Carbon dioxide Carbon Dioxide - analysis Carbon dioxide emissions Climate Coal Coal - analysis Coal - economics Coal-fired power plants Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - epidemiology Electric power demand Electric power generation Electricity Emissions Emissions control Fossil Fuels - analysis Gaussian process Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Industrial plant emissions multidisciplinary Pandemics Plant shutdowns Power plants Power Plants - economics Power Plants - statistics & numerical data Power Plants - trends SARS-CoV-2 Science Science (multidisciplinary) Seasonal variations Statistical analysis Statistical significance United States - epidemiology |
| title | No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector |
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