Assessing potential surge of COVID-19 cases and the need for booster vaccine amid emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in Indonesia: A modelling study from West Java

• Published in: Heliyon 2023-09, Vol.9 (9), p.e20009-e20009, Article e20009
• Main Authors: Nuraini, Nuning, Soekotjo, Fadiya Nadhilah, Alifia, Almira, Sukandar, Kamal Khairudin, Lestari, Bony Wiem
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: COVID-19 booster vaccine; Mathematical modelling; Vaccine coverage
• ISSN: 2405-8440; 2405-8440
• DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20009

Primary and booster vaccinations are crucial in COVID-19 control. This study aimed to assess the minimum booster coverage to hamper potential surge of COVID-19 cases in 2023 in Indonesia, a low-resource setting country. We used a modified SEIR compartment model to assess different scenarios in booster coverage across West Java population: 35%, 50%, and 70%. We fitted the model, then we calculated the potential active cases in 2023 if each scenario was met before 2022 ends. A heat map of predicted cases from various booster coverages and time frames was produced and matched with vaccination rate's function to determine feasible time frames. A minimum of 70% booster coverage in West Java is needed to reduce 90% of potential COVID-19 cases and avert possible surge in 2023. The booster doses should be distributed before February 2023 to achieve its optimum preventive effect. Delays in achieving minimum booster coverage is acceptable, but higher booster coverage will be required. For better COVID-19 control in Indonesia, booster vaccination is warranted, as presented by a case study in West Java. Sufficient vaccine supplies, infrastructure, and healthcare workers should be ensured to support a successful booster vaccination program. •High booster coverage is warranted to prevent COVID-19 surge in 2023.•Timely booster rollout is critical in COVID-19 control.•COVID-19 variants and vaccine brands are accommodated in the model.•Waning of vaccine-induced immunity is considered in the model.