Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Population Dynamics Using Geoinformatics: A Case Study of Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

• Published in: Engineering proceedings 2023-10, Vol.56 (1), p.103
• Main Authors: Kamran, Muhammad Fahim Khokhar, Junaid Aziz Khan, Iftikhar Hussain Adil
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: change detection; GIS and RS; LULC classification; Mardan
• ISSN: 2673-4591
• DOI: 10.3390/ASEC2023-15367

Over the last three decades, Tehsil Mardan has gone through an incredible expansion of its built-up layer. This study explored the land use land cover changes in Tehsil Mardan from 1990 to 2021 along with population dynamics by applying geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques. Landsat satellite images for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2021 were used for land use land cover classification. A maximum likelihood supervised algorithm and confusion matrix were applied for classification and accuracy assessment, respectively. The classification results outlined that there has been a substantial increase in the built-up layer from 37 km2 to 188 km2 and a significant decrease in bare land class from 437 km2 to 252 km2 from 1990 to 2021. The classification proces’s overall accuracy ranged from 87.42% to 98.30%, and the Kappa Coefficient ranged from 0.82 to 0.97. Population dynamics were also studied in the present study, and it was found that the total population of Tehsil Mardan was 502,435, 864,017, and 1,403,002 in 1981, 1998, and 2017, respectively, and its population was further forecasted based on historical trends until 2027. Statistical analysis revealed a strong positive correlation (0.98) between the built-up layer and population and a significant negative correlation (−0.91) between population and bare land. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers should be able to better plan future land use and account for associated factors while keeping environmental threats and opportunities in mind.