Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform – Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh

• Published in: Environment international 2020-12, Vol.145, p.106155, Article 106155
• Main Authors: Kuylenstierna, Johan C.I., Heaps, Charles G., Ahmed, Tanvir, Vallack, Harry W., Hicks, W. Kevin, Ashmore, Mike R., Malley, Christopher S., Wang, Guozhong, Lefèvre, Elsa N., Anenberg, Susan C., Lacey, Forrest, Shindell, Drew T., Bhattacharjee, Utpal, Henze, Daven K.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air Pollutants - analysis; Air pollution; Air Pollution - analysis; Air Pollution - prevention & control; Bangladesh; Climate Change; Fine particulate matter; Humans; Paris; Particulate Matter - analysis; Premature mortality; Scenario analysis
• ISSN: 0160-4120; 1873-6750
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.106155

•Climate change and air pollution are closely linked due to common emission sources.•LEAP-IBC provides tool to identify effective strategies for simultaneous mitigation.•Allows evaluation of emissions and air pollution and climate change impacts of scenarios.•Bangladesh application quantifies human health benefit of climate change commitment.•Identifies additional actions to further improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gases. Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures. This paper presents a modelling framework implemented in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform – Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to develop integrated strategies to improve air quality, human health and mitigate climate change. The framework estimates emissions of greenhouse gases, SLCPs and air pollutants for historical years, and future projections for baseline and mitigation scenarios. These emissions are then used to quantify i) population-weighted annual average ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the target country, ii) household PM2.5 exposure of different population groups living in households cooking using different fuels/technologies and iii) radiative forcing from all emissions. Health impacts (premature mortality) attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 exposure and changes in global average temperature change are then estimated. This framework is applied in Bangladesh to evaluate the air quality and climate change benefits from implementation of Bangladesh’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Action Plan to reduce SLCPs. Results show that the measures included to reduce GHGs in Bangladesh’s NDC also have substantial benefits for air quality and human health. Full implementation of Bangladesh’s NDC, and National SLCP Plan would reduce carbon dioxide, methane, black carbon and primary PM2.5 emissions by 25%, 34%, 46% and 45%, respectively in 2030 compared to