Impact assessment of climate change on hydro-climatic conditions of arid and semi-arid watersheds (case study: Zoshk-Abardeh watershed, Iran)

• Published in: Journal of water and climate change 2021-03, Vol.12 (2), p.580-595
• Main Authors: Rahimpour, Mohadese, Tajbakhsh, Mohamad, Memarian, Hadi, Aghakhani Afshar, Amirhosein
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agriculture; Algorithms; Arid regions; Arid zones; Climate change; Climate change influences; Climate effects; Climate models; Climatic conditions; Drought; Ecotourism; Environmental assessment; Environmental impact; Flow velocity; General circulation models; Greenhouse gases; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrologic models; Hydrological cycle; Hydrology; Impact assessment; Interdisciplinary research; Interdisciplinary studies; Intervals; miroc-esm; Precipitation; Precipitation and runoff; Rain; Rainfall; River basins; Runoff; Semi arid areas; Semiarid lands; Semiarid zones; Soil water; swat; Temperature; Water shortages; Watershed management; Watersheds
• ISSN: 2040-2244; 2408-9354
• DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.224

The hydrologic cycle in the river basins of semi-arid regions is severely influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatic condition in Zoshk-Abardeh watershed in eastern Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting – Version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm to improve the simulation results of the runoff. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System Models (MIROC-ESM) was used to investigate the effects of climate change on hydro-climatic components under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and in near- (2014–2042), mid- (2042–2071), and far- (2072–2100) futures. The temperature component under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 during the near- and mid-future intervals and the far-future period (for RCP6.0) indicated a significant rising trend. The rainfall parameter in all RCPs and future intervals showed an insignificant descending trend. Runoff alterations under the RCP4.5 amid the mid- to far-future intervals and under the RCP8.5 throughout the far-future period trailed a significant descending trend. The results determined that the temperature will track an upward tendency, while precipitation and runoff will follow a descending trend in this watershed by the end of the 21st century.