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Multivariable prediction of functional outcome after first-episode psychosis: a crossover validation approach in EUFEST and PSYSCAN

Several multivariate prognostic models have been published to predict outcomes in patients with first episode psychosis (FEP), but it remains unclear whether those predictions generalize to independent populations. Using a subset of demographic and clinical baseline predictors, we aimed to develop a...

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Published in:NPJ schizophrenia 2024-10, Vol.10 (1), p.89-11, Article 89
Main Authors: Slot, Margot I. E., Urquijo Castro, Maria F., Winter - van Rossum, Inge, van Hell, Hendrika H., Dwyer, Dominic, Dazzan, Paola, Maat, Arija, De Haan, Lieuwe, Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto, Glenthøj, Birte Y., Lawrie, Stephen M., McDonald, Colm, Gruber, Oliver, van Amelsvoort, Thérèse, Arango, Celso, Kircher, Tilo, Nelson, Barnaby, Galderisi, Silvana, Weiser, Mark, Sachs, Gabriele, Kirschner, Matthias, Fleischhacker, W. Wolfgang, McGuire, Philip, Koutsouleris, Nikolaos, Kahn, René S.
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Language:English
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Summary:Several multivariate prognostic models have been published to predict outcomes in patients with first episode psychosis (FEP), but it remains unclear whether those predictions generalize to independent populations. Using a subset of demographic and clinical baseline predictors, we aimed to develop and externally validate different models predicting functional outcome after a FEP in the context of a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder (FES), based on a previously published cross-validation and machine learning pipeline. A crossover validation approach was adopted in two large, international cohorts (EUFEST, n  = 338, and the PSYSCAN FES cohort, n  = 226). Scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning scale (GAF) at 12 month follow-up were dichotomized to differentiate between poor (GAF current 
ISSN:2754-6993
2754-6993
2334-265X
DOI:10.1038/s41537-024-00505-w