Evaluation of Early Prognostic Factors of Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study

Early and accurate assessment of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP) is of great importance to provide effective disease management and prevent mortality. In this study, we aim to evaluate early indicators that predict the mortality of AP. We retrospectively analyzed 24-hour clinical characteristics...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Gastroenterology research and practice 2017-01, Vol.2017 (2017), p.1-6
Main Authors: Liang, Lu, Song, Lei, Yang, Xvsheng, Yao, Bihui, Hu, Jiang, Zhang, Wenzheng, Yin, Ting
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Albumin
Analysis
Cysts
Disease
Gangrene
Gastroenterology
Hospitals
Laboratories
Medical prognosis
Mortality
Pancreatitis
Patient outcomes
Patients
Physiology
Prognosis
Risk factors
Surgery
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Summary:Early and accurate assessment of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP) is of great importance to provide effective disease management and prevent mortality. In this study, we aim to evaluate early indicators that predict the mortality of AP. We retrospectively analyzed 24-hour clinical characteristics and laboratory data in 166 AP patients recruited between January 2014 and November 2015 in Baotou Central Hospital. In total, 18 patients did not survive the disease. Multivariate logistic regression showed that red cell distribution (RDW) (OR = 2.965, P=0.001) and creatinine (OR = 1.025, P=0.005) were early independent risk factors of AP mortality while albumin (OR = 0.920, P=0.032) levels reduced AP mortality. The corresponding optimal cut-off values were 14.45, 125.5, and 34.95, respectively. The positive predictive values of the AP mortality were 80.1%, 54.5%, and 69.5%. In combined measurement, the area under the curve of RDW, creatinine, and albumin was 0.964 (95% CI: 0.924 to 1.000, P
ISSN:1687-6121
1687-630X
DOI:10.1155/2017/8363561