The impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the very short-term rainfall forecasts of RAMS@ISAC: application to two case studies in Italy

In this paper, we study the impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the precipitation VSF (very short-term forecast, 3 h in this study) for two severe weather events that occurred in Italy. The first case refers to a moderate and localized rainfall over central Italy t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards and earth system sciences 2019-08, Vol.19 (8), p.1839-1864
Main Authors: Federico, Stefano, Torcasio, Rosa Claudia, Avolio, Elenio, Caumont, Olivier, Montopoli, Mario, Baldini, Luca, Vulpiani, Gianfranco, Dietrich, Stefano
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Atmospheric precipitations
Atmospheric sciences
Case studies
Climate models
Data
Data assimilation
Data collection
Environmental aspects
False alarms
Lightning
Methods
Precipitation
Radar
Radar data
Radar reflectivity
Rain
Rainfall
Rainfall forecasting
Rams
Reflectance
Severe weather
Weather forecasting
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Summary:In this paper, we study the impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the precipitation VSF (very short-term forecast, 3 h in this study) for two severe weather events that occurred in Italy. The first case refers to a moderate and localized rainfall over central Italy that occurred on 16 September 2017. The second case occurred on 9 and 10 September 2017 and was very intense and caused damages in several geographical areas, especially in Livorno (Tuscany) where nine people died. While there is an improvement of the rainfall VSF thanks to the lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation, its usefulness is partially reduced by the increase in false alarms, especially when both datasets are assimilated.
ISSN:1684-9981
1561-8633
1684-9981
DOI:10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019