Ice Concentration Scaling Laws for Freshwater Lakes in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

If lake ice is assumed to deform and fail as a linear viscoelastic material under the action of wind stress, then a simple ice concentration scaling law can be constructed suitable for one‐dimensional lake models embedded within environmental prediction systems. Most 1‐D lake models assume no ice me...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2023-06, Vol.50 (12), p.n/a
Main Author: MacKay, Murray D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Buckling
Climate and weather
Climate models
Climate prediction
Constitutive equations
Constitutive relationships
Deformation
Ecological effects
Elastic buckling
Environment models
Failure mechanisms
Freshwater
Freshwater lakes
Ice
Ice cover
Ice models
Ice thickness
Inland water environment
Lake ecology
Lake ice
lake ice mechanics
Lake models
Lake size
Lakes
Mechanics
Mechanics (physics)
Modelling
Ocean models
Rheological properties
Rheology
Scaling
Scaling laws
Sea ice
Sea ice models
Simulation
Snowstorms
Statistical methods
viscoelastic
Viscoelasticity
Viscosity
Weather
Weather conditions
Weather effects
Wind stress
Winter
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Summary:If lake ice is assumed to deform and fail as a linear viscoelastic material under the action of wind stress, then a simple ice concentration scaling law can be constructed suitable for one‐dimensional lake models embedded within environmental prediction systems. Most 1‐D lake models assume no ice mechanics at all, while others adapt the viscous‐plastic rheology common in ice‐ocean models for the purpose of estimating ice fraction. Elastic buckling is generally disregarded as a significant failure mechanism in ice under low stress conditions at geophysical scales. However, by adding viscosity to the constitutive equation, the conditions for viscoelastic buckling seem quite plausible over a wide range of lake size and ice thickness. An ice concentration scaling law based on this process is evaluated here in multiannual simulations over North America and found to produce superior ice phenology statistics compared with simulations based on plastic failure or no ice mechanics. Plain Language Summary Most mid‐ and high‐latitude lakes experience periods of partial ice cover (i.e., ice concentration 
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2023GL103713