Understanding the relationship between stay-at-home measures and vaccine shortages: a conventional, heterogeneous, and fractional dynamic approach

• Published in: Journal of health, population and nutrition population and nutrition, 2024-02, Vol.43 (1), p.32-32, Article 32
• Main Authors: Ullah, Mohammad Sharif, Kamrujjaman, Md, Kabir, K M Ariful
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Disease control; Disease transmission; Epidemic models; Epidemics; Epidemics - prevention & control; Fractional calculus; Humans; Immunization; Impact analysis; Infectious diseases; Mathematical models; Medical research; Medicine, Experimental; Memory effect; Multi-waving; Network analysis; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Ordinary differential equations; Pandemics; Pharmaceuticals; Policy making; Prevalence studies (Epidemiology); Quarantine; Respiratory diseases; Respiratory tract diseases; Shortages; Shutdowns; Stochasticity; Theoretical analysis; Vaccination; Vaccine shortage; Vaccines; Variants
• ISSN: 2072-1315; 1606-0997; 2072-1315
• DOI: 10.1186/s41043-024-00505-7

In light of the global prevalence of a highly contagious respiratory disease, this study presents a novel approach to address the pressing and unanticipated issues by introducing a modified vaccination and lockdown-centered epidemic model. The rapid spread of the disease is attributed to viral transmissibility, the emergence of new strains (variants), lack of immunization, and human unawareness. This study aims to provide policymakers with crucial insights for making informed decisions regarding lockdown strategies, vaccine availability, and other control measures. The research adopts three types of models: deterministic, heterogeneous, and fractional-order dynamics, on both theoretical and numerical approaches. The heterogeneous network considers varying connectivity and interaction patterns among individuals, while the ABC fractional-order derivatives analyze the impact of integer-order control in different semi-groups. An extensive theoretical analysis is conducted to validate the proposed model. A comprehensive numerical investigation encompasses deterministic, stochastic, and ABC fractional-order derivatives, considering the combined effects of an effective vaccination program and non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as lockdowns and shutdowns. The findings of this research are expected to be valuable for policymakers in different countries, helping them implement dynamic strategies to control and eradicate the epidemic effectively.