Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

• Published in: Frontiers in veterinary science 2024-10, Vol.11, p.1468864
• Main Authors: Cardenas, Nicolas C, Lopes, Francisco P N, Machado, Alencar, Maran, Vinicius, Trois, Celio, Machado, Felipe Amadori, Machado, Gustavo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: dynamical models; epidemiology; FMD (foot-and-mouth disease); infectious disease control; targeted control; transmission; Veterinary Science
• ISSN: 2297-1769; 2297-1769
• DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1468864

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects multiple food-animal species and spreads rapidly among ungulate populations, posing significant challenges for disease control. Understanding the dynamics of FMD transmission and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures are critical for mitigating its impact. This study introduces a multiscale compartmental stochastic model to simulate FMD spread and assess countermeasures. We developed a model that integrates population dynamics, including births, deaths, and species-specific transmission dynamics, at both the between-farm and within-farm levels. Four scenarios were created to evaluate different control strategies: the base scenario included vaccinating 20 farms and depopulating four infected farms, while alternative scenarios increased vaccination and depopulation capacities or omitted vaccination altogether. Our simulations showed that bovines were the most frequently infected species, followed by swine and small ruminants. After 10 days of initial spread, the number of infected farms ranged from 1 to 123, with 90.12% of simulations resulting in fewer than 50 infected farms. Most secondary spread occurred within a 25 km radius. An early response to control actions significantly reduced the time spent managing outbreaks, and increasing daily depopulation and vaccination capacities further enhanced control efforts. Emergency vaccination effectively reduced the magnitude and duration of outbreaks, while increasing depopulation without vaccination also eliminated outbreaks. These findings highlight the importance of rapid response and capacity scaling in controlling FMD outbreaks, providing valuable insights for future decision-making processes in disease management.