Effectiveness of interventions to reduce contact rates during a simulated influenza pandemic

Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts amon...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Emerging infectious diseases 2007-04, Vol.13 (4), p.581-589
Main Authors: Haber, Michael J, Shay, David K, Davis, Xiaohong M, Patel, Rajan, Jin, Xiaoping, Weintraub, Eric, Orenstein, Evan, Thompson, William W
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Child
Child, Preschool
Computer Simulation
Contact Tracing
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Family Characteristics
Female
Health Planning
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Influenza
Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - mortality
Influenza, Human - prevention & control
Influenza, Human - transmission
Long-Term Care
Long-term care facilities
Long-term care of the sick
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
patient isolation
quarantine
Schools
statistical
Stochastic Processes
United States - epidemiology
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Summary:Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by approximately 50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by approximately 60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease the pandemic's health effects.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059
DOI:10.3201/eid1304.060828