Expanded S-Curve Model of Relationship between Domestic Water Usage and Economic Development: A Case Study of Typical Countries

Domestic water plays a growing role with the unprecedented economic development and rising urbanization. The lack of long-term evaluation of domestic water usage trends limits our understanding of the relationship between domestic water usage and economics. Here, we present a pragmatic approach to a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied sciences 2022-06, Vol.12 (12), p.6090
Main Authors: Guo, Xiaoqian, Wang, Anjian, Liu, Guwang, Du, Boyu
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Case studies
Deceleration
Developmental stages
Domestic water
domestic water usage
Economic development
Economic forecasting
Economics
Evaluation
expanded S-curve model
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Investigations
mathematical model
Mathematical models
Per capita
Population
Regions
Trends
Urbanization
Water consumption
Water use
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Summary:Domestic water plays a growing role with the unprecedented economic development and rising urbanization. The lack of long-term evaluation of domestic water usage trends limits our understanding of the relationship between domestic water usage and economics. Here, we present a pragmatic approach to assess the long-term relationship between domestic water usage and economics through historical data of the last 100 years from 10 typical countries to establish an evaluation method for different economics. The relationship between domestic water usage and GDP per capita was described as an expanded S-curve model and the mathematical modeling was derived to simulate this relationship for four typical countries as case studies. The simulation results show that the expanded S-curve of different countries can be calibrated with three key points: takeoff point, turning point, and zero-growth point, and four transitional sections: slow growth, accelerated growth, decelerated growth, and zero/negative growth, corresponding to the same economic development level. In addition, other factors influencing domestic water usage are also discussed in this research, including urbanization, industrial structure, and technical progress. We hope to provide a case study of an expanded S-curve as a foundation for forecasting domestic water usage in different countries or in the same economy at different developmental stages.
ISSN:2076-3417
2076-3417
DOI:10.3390/app12126090