21st‐century biogeochemical modeling: Challenges for Century‐based models and where do we go from here?

• Published in: Global change biology. Bioenergy 2020-10, Vol.12 (10), p.774-788
• Main Authors: Berardi, Danielle, Brzostek, Edward, Blanc‐Betes, Elena, Davison, Brian, DeLucia, Evan H., Hartman, Melannie D., Kent, Jeffrey, Parton, William J., Saha, Debasish, Hudiburg, Tara W.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural production; bioenergy; biogeochemical modeling; Biogeochemistry; Biomass; Budgets; Carbon; Carbon cycle; Climate change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Crop production; Crops; Decomposition; Drought; Dynamic structural analysis; Ecosystems; Emissions; Environment models; Environmental changes; Fluxes; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Kinetics; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Microorganisms; Modelling; N2O; Nitrogen; Nitrogen cycle; Nitrous oxide; Organic carbon; Organic soils; Parameter identification; plant age dynamics; Precipitation; Raw materials; Renewable energy; soil; Soil dynamics; Soil improvement; Soils; Sustainability; Trace gases
• ISSN: 1757-1693; 1757-1707
• DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12730

21st‐century modeling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops is necessary to quantify the extent to which bioenergy production can mitigate climate change. For over 30 years, the Century‐based biogeochemical models have provided the preeminent framework for belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystem and earth system models. While monthly Century and the daily time‐step version of Century (DayCent) have advanced our ability to predict the sustainability of bioenergy crop production, new advances in feedstock generation, and our empirical understanding of sources and sinks of GHGs in soils call for a re‐visitation of DayCent's core model structures. Here, we evaluate current challenges with modeling soil carbon dynamics, trace gas fluxes, and drought and age‐related impacts on bioenergy crop productivity. We propose coupling a microbial process‐based soil organic carbon and nitrogen model with DayCent to improve soil carbon dynamics. We describe recent improvements to DayCent for simulating unique plant structural and physiological attributes of perennial bioenergy grasses. Finally, we propose a method for using machine learning to identify key parameters for simulating N2O emissions. Our efforts are focused on meeting the needs for modeling bioenergy crops; however, many updates reviewed and suggested to DayCent will be broadly applicable to other systems. This review evaluates current challenges with biogeochemical modeling of soil carbon dynamics, trace gas fluxes, and drought and age‐related impacts on bioenergy crop productivity. We propose coupling a microbial process‐based soil organic carbon and nitrogen model with DayCent, or other Century‐based biogeochemical models, to improve representation of soil carbon dynamics. We describe recent improvements to DayCent for simulating unique plant structural and physiological attributes of perennial bioenergy grasses. Finally, we propose a method for using machine learning to identify key parameters for simulating N2O emissions.