Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada

We determined correlations between SARS-CoV-2 load in untreated water and COVID-19 cases and patient hospitalizations before the Omicron variant (September 2020-November 2021) at 2 wastewater treatment plants in the Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Using pre-Omicron correlations, we e...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Emerging infectious diseases 2023-08, Vol.29 (8), p.1580-1588
Main Authors: Cheng, Lydia, Dhiyebi, Hadi A, Varia, Monali, Atanas, Kyle, Srikanthan, Nivetha, Hayat, Samina, Ikert, Heather, Fuzzen, Meghan, Sing-Judge, Carly, Badlani, Yash, Zeeb, Eli, Bragg, Leslie M, Delatolla, Robert, Giesy, John P, Gilliland, Elaine, Servos, Mark R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
2019 novel coronavirus disease
Canada
coronavirus disease
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Distribution
Epidemics
Health aspects
Health surveillance
Hospitalization
Hospitals
Humans
Laboratories
Omicron COVID-19 Case Estimates Based on Previous SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Load, Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada
Ontario - epidemiology
Outbreaks
Patients
Polyethylene glycol
Public health
Purification
Regression analysis
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Sewage
Testing
Trends
viruses
Wastewater
Wastewater treatment plants
Water treatment plants
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Summary:We determined correlations between SARS-CoV-2 load in untreated water and COVID-19 cases and patient hospitalizations before the Omicron variant (September 2020-November 2021) at 2 wastewater treatment plants in the Regional Municipality of Peel, Ontario, Canada. Using pre-Omicron correlations, we estimated incident COVID-19 cases during Omicron outbreaks (November 2021-June 2022). The strongest correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 load and COVID-19 cases occurred 1 day after sampling (r = 0.911). The strongest correlation between wastewater load and COVID-19 patient hospitalizations occurred 4 days after sampling (r = 0.819). At the peak of the Omicron BA.2 outbreak in April 2022, reported COVID-19 cases were underestimated 19-fold because of changes in clinical testing. Wastewater data provided information for local decision-making and are a useful component of COVID-19 surveillance systems.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059
DOI:10.3201/eid2908.221580