Sectoral low-carbon roadmaps and the role of forest biomass in Finland's carbon neutrality 2035 target

• Published in: Energy strategy reviews 2022-05, Vol.41, p.100836, Article 100836
• Main Authors: Majava, Antti, Vadén, Tere, Toivanen, Tero, Järvensivu, Paavo, Lähde, Ville, Eronen, Jussi T.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biomass; Carbon neutrality; Climate policy; Finland; Forest
• ISSN: 2211-467X; 2211-467X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2022.100836

As a part of its climate policy, Finnish government facilitated the creation of low-carbon roadmaps by sectors of industry. The roadmap process and the roadmaps were promoted as an international benchmark in COP26. They also form a part of the policy process towards the government's goal of carbon neutrality by 2035. We analyse the need and role of biomass use contained in the roadmaps of the key sectors and compare it to data on available forest biomass. The combined need for forest biomass in the roadmaps is well over 140 Mm3, which is over double that of the logging level in 2019, and drastically over the roadmaps' projection of future sustainable yield. This creates a challenge for the carbon neutrality goal via the loss of carbon sinks in forests, risking the carbon neutrality target and other sustainability goals. Although, up to date, the roadmaps present the most detailed picture of industrial transformation towards carbon neutrality in an EU member state, they are made unrealistic by the omission of a comprehensive material perspective. The addition of such a perspective and a clear setting of boundaries would increase the viability of the roadmaps as a policy tool. •The Finnish sectoral low-carbon roadmaps contain a total of biomass use that massively oversteps available forest biomass.•The reliance on forest biomass endangers the national carbon neutrality goal via the loss of forest sinks.•The analysis of material availability and limits is essential for realistic assessment of risks in the roadmaps.•In the absence of resource limits, the mere inclusion of industries as stakeholders does not guarantee coherent roadmaps.