Time-dependent Reliability Analysis of Flood Defence Assets Using Generic Fragility Curve

Flood defence assets such as earth embankments comprise the vital part of linear flood defences in many countries including the UK and protect inland from flooding. The risks of flooding are likely to increase in the future due to increasing pressure on land use, increasing rainfall events and risin...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Nepal, Jaya, Chen, Hua-Peng, Simm, Jonathan, Gouldby, Ben
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Subjects:
Aging
Case studies
Climate change
Defense
Deterioration
Embankments
Environmental risk
Feasibility studies
Flood control
Flood management
Flooding
Floods
Fragility
Land use
Performance assessment
Rainfall
Reliability analysis
Risk management
Sea level rise
Stochasticity
Structural engineering
Structural safety
Sustainable development
Time dependence
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Summary:Flood defence assets such as earth embankments comprise the vital part of linear flood defences in many countries including the UK and protect inland from flooding. The risks of flooding are likely to increase in the future due to increasing pressure on land use, increasing rainfall events and rising sea level caused by climate change also affect aging flood defence assets. Therefore, it is important that the flood defence assets are maintained at a high level of safety and serviceability. The high costs associated with preserving these deteriorating flood defence assets and the limited funds available for their maintenance require the development of systematic approaches to ensure the sustainable flood-risk management system. The integration of realistic deterioration measurement and reliabilitybased performance assessment techniques has tremendous potential for structural safety and economic feasibility of flood defence assets. Therefore, the need for reliability-based performance assessment is evident. However, investigations on time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defence assets are limited. This paper presents a novel approach for time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defence assets. In the analysis, time-dependent fragility curve is developed by using the state-based stochastic deterioration model. The applicability of the proposed approach is then demonstrated with a case study.
ISSN:2267-1242
2555-0403
2267-1242
DOI:10.1051/e3sconf/20160703014