Modelling Runoff within a Small River Basin under the Changing Climate: A Case Study of Using SWAT in the Bălțata River Basin (The Republic of Moldova)

• Published in: Land (Basel) 2022-02, Vol.11 (2), p.167
• Main Authors: Sîrodoev, Igor, Corobov, Roman, Sîrodoev, Ghennadi, Trombitsky, Ilya
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bălțata River Basin; Case studies; Climate change; Climate models; climate scenarios; Crop production; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Land use; Pollutants; Remote sensing; Republic of Moldova; River basins; Rivers; Runoff; Simulation; Soil water; Surface runoff; water availability; Water resources; Watershed management; Watersheds
• ISSN: 2073-445X; 2073-445X
• DOI: 10.3390/land11020167

The article focuses on modelling surface runoff in a small river basin taking into consideration climate change projections. The runoff was modelled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), while three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were considered for modelling the future climate. Despite the identified uncertainties, all the scenarios pointed towards decreasing runoff and losing available water resources. The expected runoff of the case study basin (Bălțata River in the Republic of Moldova) will decrease under all considered scenarios. The risk of diminishing runoff will be low in the middle-term perspective and moderate in the long-term one, if considered from the yearly changes. However, there are months with a high risk of diminishing runoff, especially important for proper crop production. While in the middle-term perspective, traditional adaptation measures can be used, in the long-term one, a totally new approach should be sought.