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Development and external validation of a preoperative nomogram for predicting pathological locally advanced disease of clinically localized upper urinary tract carcinoma

Objective To develop and validate a preoperative nomogram to predict pathological locally advanced disease (pLAD) of clinically localized upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) treated with extirpative surgery. Methods In total, 1101 patients with cN0M0 UTUC (development cohort, n = 604; va...

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Published in:Cancer medicine (Malden, MA) MA), 2020-06, Vol.9 (11), p.3733-3741
Main Authors: Yoshida, Takashi, Kobayashi, Takashi, Kawaura, Takayuki, Miyake, Makito, Ito, Katsuhiro, Okuno, Hiroshi, Murota, Takashi, Makita, Noriyuki, Kawakita, Mutsushi, Kawa, Gen, Kitawaki, Tomoki, Fujimoto, Kiyohide, Matsuyama, Hideyasu, Shiina, Hiroaki, Azuma, Haruhito, Ogawa, Osamu, Kinoshita, Hidefumi, Matsuda, Tadashi
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cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c6198-780d244fb923cc0be977a27e1ac48b4b9208948df5985d0c5934d4198775e1473
cites cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c6198-780d244fb923cc0be977a27e1ac48b4b9208948df5985d0c5934d4198775e1473
container_end_page 3741
container_issue 11
container_start_page 3733
container_title Cancer medicine (Malden, MA)
container_volume 9
creator Yoshida, Takashi
Kobayashi, Takashi
Kawaura, Takayuki
Miyake, Makito
Ito, Katsuhiro
Okuno, Hiroshi
Murota, Takashi
Makita, Noriyuki
Kawakita, Mutsushi
Kawa, Gen
Kitawaki, Tomoki
Fujimoto, Kiyohide
Matsuyama, Hideyasu
Shiina, Hiroaki
Azuma, Haruhito
Ogawa, Osamu
Kinoshita, Hidefumi
Matsuda, Tadashi
description Objective To develop and validate a preoperative nomogram to predict pathological locally advanced disease (pLAD) of clinically localized upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) treated with extirpative surgery. Methods In total, 1101 patients with cN0M0 UTUC (development cohort, n = 604; validation cohort, n = 497) from 2 independent academic databases were retrospectively analyzed. pLAD was defined as pT3/4 and/or pN+. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated with a receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Results The development and validation cohorts comprised 204 (33.8%) and 178 (35.8%) patients with pLAD, respectively. The multivariate analyses showed that the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; P 
doi_str_mv 10.1002/cam4.2988
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Methods In total, 1101 patients with cN0M0 UTUC (development cohort, n = 604; validation cohort, n = 497) from 2 independent academic databases were retrospectively analyzed. pLAD was defined as pT3/4 and/or pN+. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated with a receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Results The development and validation cohorts comprised 204 (33.8%) and 178 (35.8%) patients with pLAD, respectively. The multivariate analyses showed that the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; P &lt; .001), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.56; P = .032), tumor location (HR, 1.60; P = .029), hydronephrosis (HR, 2.71; P &lt; .001), and local invasion on imaging (HR, 8.59; P &lt; .001) were independent predictive factors. After bootstrapping, a well‐calibrated nomogram achieved discriminative accuracy of 0.77 in the development cohort. The decision curve analysis demonstrated improved risk prediction against threshold probabilities (≥8%) of pLAD. These results were consistent in the validation cohort. Conclusion Our novel nomogram allows for more highly accurate prediction of pLAD of UTUC. This nomogram integrates standard imaging and laboratory factors that help to identify patients who will benefit from preoperative chemotherapy, extended lymph node dissection, or both. We developed a preoperative nomogram for the prediction of pathological locally advanced disease of clinically localized upper urinary tract carcinoma using five readily available variables based on standard imaging and laboratory findings. The use of our model will improve clinical decision‐making with regard to candidates for neoadjuvant chemotherapy and/or extended lymphnode dissection, even in patients who are omitted from ureteroscopy or who have insignificant tumor on imaging, prior to extirpative surgery for upper urinary tract carcinoma.</description><identifier>ISSN: 2045-7634</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 2045-7634</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/cam4.2988</identifier><identifier>PMID: 32253820</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc</publisher><subject>Aged ; Anemia ; Bladder cancer ; Chemotherapy ; Clinical Cancer Research ; Collaboration ; Dissection ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Hemoglobin ; Humans ; Hydronephrosis ; Kidney diseases ; Lymph nodes ; Lymphatic system ; Lymphocytes ; Male ; Nephrectomy - methods ; Neutrophils ; nomogram ; Nomograms ; Oncology ; Original Research ; Patients ; Preoperative Care ; Prognosis ; renal pelvis ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; ROC Curve ; Surgery ; surgical procedure ; Tomography ; Tumors ; ureter ; Urinary tract ; Urogenital system ; Urologic Neoplasms - pathology ; Urologic Neoplasms - surgery ; Urothelial carcinoma ; Variables</subject><ispartof>Cancer medicine (Malden, MA), 2020-06, Vol.9 (11), p.3733-3741</ispartof><rights>2020 The Authors. published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.</rights><rights>2020 The Authors. 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Methods In total, 1101 patients with cN0M0 UTUC (development cohort, n = 604; validation cohort, n = 497) from 2 independent academic databases were retrospectively analyzed. pLAD was defined as pT3/4 and/or pN+. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated with a receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Results The development and validation cohorts comprised 204 (33.8%) and 178 (35.8%) patients with pLAD, respectively. The multivariate analyses showed that the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; P &lt; .001), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.56; P = .032), tumor location (HR, 1.60; P = .029), hydronephrosis (HR, 2.71; P &lt; .001), and local invasion on imaging (HR, 8.59; P &lt; .001) were independent predictive factors. After bootstrapping, a well‐calibrated nomogram achieved discriminative accuracy of 0.77 in the development cohort. The decision curve analysis demonstrated improved risk prediction against threshold probabilities (≥8%) of pLAD. These results were consistent in the validation cohort. Conclusion Our novel nomogram allows for more highly accurate prediction of pLAD of UTUC. This nomogram integrates standard imaging and laboratory factors that help to identify patients who will benefit from preoperative chemotherapy, extended lymph node dissection, or both. We developed a preoperative nomogram for the prediction of pathological locally advanced disease of clinically localized upper urinary tract carcinoma using five readily available variables based on standard imaging and laboratory findings. 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Kobayashi, Takashi ; Kawaura, Takayuki ; Miyake, Makito ; Ito, Katsuhiro ; Okuno, Hiroshi ; Murota, Takashi ; Makita, Noriyuki ; Kawakita, Mutsushi ; Kawa, Gen ; Kitawaki, Tomoki ; Fujimoto, Kiyohide ; Matsuyama, Hideyasu ; Shiina, Hiroaki ; Azuma, Haruhito ; Ogawa, Osamu ; Kinoshita, Hidefumi ; Matsuda, Tadashi</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c6198-780d244fb923cc0be977a27e1ac48b4b9208948df5985d0c5934d4198775e1473</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2020</creationdate><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Anemia</topic><topic>Bladder cancer</topic><topic>Chemotherapy</topic><topic>Clinical Cancer Research</topic><topic>Collaboration</topic><topic>Dissection</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Follow-Up Studies</topic><topic>Hemoglobin</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Hydronephrosis</topic><topic>Kidney diseases</topic><topic>Lymph nodes</topic><topic>Lymphatic system</topic><topic>Lymphocytes</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Nephrectomy - methods</topic><topic>Neutrophils</topic><topic>nomogram</topic><topic>Nomograms</topic><topic>Oncology</topic><topic>Original Research</topic><topic>Patients</topic><topic>Preoperative Care</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>renal pelvis</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>ROC Curve</topic><topic>Surgery</topic><topic>surgical procedure</topic><topic>Tomography</topic><topic>Tumors</topic><topic>ureter</topic><topic>Urinary tract</topic><topic>Urogenital system</topic><topic>Urologic Neoplasms - pathology</topic><topic>Urologic Neoplasms - surgery</topic><topic>Urothelial carcinoma</topic><topic>Variables</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Yoshida, Takashi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kobayashi, Takashi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawaura, Takayuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miyake, Makito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ito, Katsuhiro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Okuno, Hiroshi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Murota, Takashi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Makita, Noriyuki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawakita, Mutsushi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kawa, Gen</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kitawaki, Tomoki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fujimoto, Kiyohide</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsuyama, Hideyasu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shiina, Hiroaki</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Azuma, Haruhito</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ogawa, Osamu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kinoshita, Hidefumi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsuda, Tadashi</creatorcontrib><collection>Wiley-Blackwell Open Access Collection</collection><collection>Wiley Free Content</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health Medical collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection (Proquest) (PQ_SDU_P3)</collection><collection>ProQuest Health &amp; 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Methods In total, 1101 patients with cN0M0 UTUC (development cohort, n = 604; validation cohort, n = 497) from 2 independent academic databases were retrospectively analyzed. pLAD was defined as pT3/4 and/or pN+. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated with a receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Results The development and validation cohorts comprised 204 (33.8%) and 178 (35.8%) patients with pLAD, respectively. The multivariate analyses showed that the neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; P &lt; .001), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.56; P = .032), tumor location (HR, 1.60; P = .029), hydronephrosis (HR, 2.71; P &lt; .001), and local invasion on imaging (HR, 8.59; P &lt; .001) were independent predictive factors. After bootstrapping, a well‐calibrated nomogram achieved discriminative accuracy of 0.77 in the development cohort. The decision curve analysis demonstrated improved risk prediction against threshold probabilities (≥8%) of pLAD. These results were consistent in the validation cohort. Conclusion Our novel nomogram allows for more highly accurate prediction of pLAD of UTUC. This nomogram integrates standard imaging and laboratory factors that help to identify patients who will benefit from preoperative chemotherapy, extended lymph node dissection, or both. We developed a preoperative nomogram for the prediction of pathological locally advanced disease of clinically localized upper urinary tract carcinoma using five readily available variables based on standard imaging and laboratory findings. The use of our model will improve clinical decision‐making with regard to candidates for neoadjuvant chemotherapy and/or extended lymphnode dissection, even in patients who are omitted from ureteroscopy or who have insignificant tumor on imaging, prior to extirpative surgery for upper urinary tract carcinoma.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc</pub><pmid>32253820</pmid><doi>10.1002/cam4.2988</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9503-7356</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1119-312X</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1069-2816</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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source Wiley-Blackwell Open Access Collection; Publicly Available Content Database; PubMed Central
subjects Aged
Anemia
Bladder cancer
Chemotherapy
Clinical Cancer Research
Collaboration
Dissection
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Hemoglobin
Humans
Hydronephrosis
Kidney diseases
Lymph nodes
Lymphatic system
Lymphocytes
Male
Nephrectomy - methods
Neutrophils
nomogram
Nomograms
Oncology
Original Research
Patients
Preoperative Care
Prognosis
renal pelvis
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
Surgery
surgical procedure
Tomography
Tumors
ureter
Urinary tract
Urogenital system
Urologic Neoplasms - pathology
Urologic Neoplasms - surgery
Urothelial carcinoma
Variables
title Development and external validation of a preoperative nomogram for predicting pathological locally advanced disease of clinically localized upper urinary tract carcinoma
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