A Theoretical Model of Listeriosis Driven by Cross Contamination of Ready-to-Eat Food Products

Cross contamination that results in food-borne disease outbreaks remains a major problem in processed foods globally. In this paper, a mathematical model that takes into consideration cross contamination of Listeria monocytogenes from a food processing plant environment is formulated using a system...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of mathematics and mathematical sciences 2020, Vol.2020 (2020), p.1-14
Main Authors: Chukwu, C. W., Nyabadza, F.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bacteria
Computer simulation
Consumption
Containment
Contamination
Convenience foods
Differential equations
Epidemics
Factories
Fatalities
Food chains
Food contamination
Food contamination & poisoning
Food processing
Food processing plants
Food products
Hypercubes
Latin hypercube sampling
Listeria
Listeriosis
Mathematical models
Numerical analysis
Outbreaks
Population
Public health
Sensitivity analysis
South Africa
Time dependence
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Summary:Cross contamination that results in food-borne disease outbreaks remains a major problem in processed foods globally. In this paper, a mathematical model that takes into consideration cross contamination of Listeria monocytogenes from a food processing plant environment is formulated using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model has three equilibria: the disease-free equilibrium, Listeria-free equilibrium, and endemic equilibrium points. A contamination threshold ℛwf is determined. Analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally stable for ℛwf1. The time-dependent sensitivity analysis is performed using Latin hypercube sampling to determine model input parameters that significantly affect the severity of the listeriosis. Numerical simulations are carried out, and the results are discussed. The results show that a reduction in the number of contaminated workers and removal of contaminated food products are essential in eliminating the disease in the human population and vice versa. The results have significant public health implications in the management and containment of any listeriosis disease outbreak.
ISSN:0161-1712
1687-0425
DOI:10.1155/2020/9207403